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Pro Teams Traveling East Win More Games

— Circadian misalignment may explain West Coast advantage

Last Updated June 23, 2016
MedpageToday

DENVER -- It appears that the home crowd isn't the only competitive edge West Coast professional sports teams enjoy when they're not on the road.

East Coast teams may have a circadian disadvantage when traveling across several time zones that is not shared by U.S. and Canadian teams based in the west traveling east for games, according to findings from two studies presented here at the meeting.

Action Points

  • Note that these studies were published as abstracts and presented at a conference. These data and conclusions should be considered to be preliminary until published in a peer-reviewed journal.
  • East Coast sports teams may have a circadian disadvantage when traveling west across several time zones compared with U.S. and Canadian teams based in the west traveling east for games, according to two studies.
  • Note that athletic performance tends to peak in the late afternoon and that players traveling from the west to the east appear to play more games closer to their circadian peaks.

An analysis of 5 years of game data from the NFL, NBA, and NHL showed that basketball teams travelling from western to eastern time zones had a significantly greater winning percentage than teams traveling in the opposite direction. There were also trends in the same direction for football and hockey teams, although they fell short of statistical significance.

And a separate examination of the impact of turnovers and injuries on winning percentage over a single season in the NFL also found pro football teams based in the west to have a winning advantage when crossing the country to play, after adjusting for other factors.

"Accumulating evidence suggests that, in the same way home field advantage influences the probability of success, so too does the circadian advantage and its direction with an advantage for teams traveling eastward," said researcher Dominique Dagenais, BSc, of the Université du Quebec en Outaouais, Gatineau.

Dagenais told ľֱ that athletic performance tends to peak in the late afternoon and that players traveling from the west to the east appear to play more games closer to their circadian peaks.

Sleep researcher of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who was not involved with either study, said the west-to-east advantage is well known in sports betting.

"There have been no empirical data on this, but friends who are involved in Las Vegas sports betting have certainly asked me about it and it seems to be pretty well recognized in sports betting circles that traveling from west to east for games is associated with a winning advantage," he told ľֱ.

Among the three professional leagues:

  • NBA: teams travelling from west to east had a winning percentage of 45.38% compared with 36.23% for teams travelling from east to west
  • NHL: teams travelling from west to east had a winning percentage of 47.62% compared with 42.48% for teams travelling in the opposite direction
  • NFL: teams travelling from west to east had a winning percentage of 46.54% compared with 37.98% for teams travelling from east to west

The circadian advantage among West Coast teams was greatest when away games in the east were played at night, while East Coast teams playing on the West Coast had a higher probability of winning games played during the day.

In the second study presented during SLEEP 2016, researchers of Morehouse College in Atlanta, and colleagues assessed the impact of circadian misalignment on game day performance beyond win-loss records in the NFL by examining the relationship between time zone travel, injuries and game errors in the 2013 regular season.

Their retroactive analysis included data on total offensive and defensive turnovers; the amount and direction of game day travel; total weeks of injury reserve for starters and special teams; and game losses for injury for all 32 teams in the NFL over 17 weeks of regular season play.

Each team's adjusted game loss (AGL) metric for injuries was obtained from the analytic website , with a low AGL indicating a greater impact from injuries on winning percentage.

Based on their analysis of the season's 256 games, 69 wins were attributed to west-to-east travel, while 34 wins were attributed to westward travel. This was after controlling for the disproportionate number of teams in each time zone, and differences in turnovers (sacks and interceptions) did not explain the winning advantage among West Coast teams.

West Coast teams had the highest AGL metric, suggesting that injuries impact winning percentage less often than among teams based elsewhere.

Disclosures

Dagenais and co-authors disclosed no relevant relationships with industry.

Brager and co-authors disclosed no relevant relationships with industry.

Primary Source

SLEEP 2016

Roy J, et al "A 5-year retrospective study on the circadian disadvantage in three major sport leagues in North America: NBA, NFL and NHL" SLEEP 2016; Abstract 1079.

Secondary Source

SLEEP 2016

Source Reference: Brager A, et al "West coast teams of the NFL have a chronobiologic advantage in winning: assessment of game day travel, turnovers and injuries" SLEEP 2016; Abstract 0161.